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Preface
December 14, 2016, edited October 7, 2023 for an entry on academia.edu.
Back to the review of
PIRIE, MADSEN (2006)(2015) How To Win Every Argument, Bloomsbury, London.
Ex-post-facto statistics
Pirie reasons:
'...there are innumerable statistical fallacies ready to trap the unwary and aid the unethical.' (102).
'I draw the ace of spades. It was only a 1 in 52 chance, but it came up.
(The same applied to all cards, but one had to come up.)' (102).
'We cannot draw too many conclusions from the low 'probability' of certain past events'. (102).
'The fallacy is committed when we go on to suppose, from the occurrence of events of low probability, that something supernatural was operating...' (102).
This is reasonable from Pirie, in my view.
'This fallacy is a great prop for those who suppose themselves the children of destiny.' (103). Basing this view on the unlikely events that occurred in life.' (103).
There is the scientific concept of probability:
'The likelihood of a particular event occurring. If there are n equally likely outcomes of some experiment, and a ways in which event E could occur, then the probability of event E is a/n.' Oxford (662).
If there were 7 equally likely outcomes of an experiment, and 8 equal ways in which the event (E) could occur: E=7/8 probability.
The science is also reasonable.
Reasonable and rational, Christian faith and philosophy is not primarily based in subjective views with low probability. The resurrection of Jesus Christ, for example, is documented in the textual religious history, known as the New Testament, and was also attested to by Church Fathers, who were basically disciples of the New Testament disciples and apostles. The resurrection is held to as doctrine because it is textually witnessed by disciples, apostles and associates.
Resurrection as doctrine was held to as intellectually certain, as in internal and external evidences 'for' were significantly stronger than internal and external evidences 'against' and those in the Christian community acted accordingly. The Christian belief is the resurrection of Christ, and the future resurrection of believer's in Christ (1 Corinthians 15, Revelation 21-22), for that matter, is not based on either high or low probability.
If interested see in 'search' top right, my writings on 'certainty', which is philosophically, not 100% certainty, because humanity lacks infinite knowledge. From my PhD thesis and website work.
BLACKBURN, SIMON (1996) Oxford Dictionary of Philosophy, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
PIRIE, MADSEN (2006)(2015) How To Win Every Argument, Bloomsbury, London.
Ex-post-facto statistics
Pirie reasons:
'...there are innumerable statistical fallacies ready to trap the unwary and aid the unethical.' (102).
'I draw the ace of spades. It was only a 1 in 52 chance, but it came up.
(The same applied to all cards, but one had to come up.)' (102).
'We cannot draw too many conclusions from the low 'probability' of certain past events'. (102).
'The fallacy is committed when we go on to suppose, from the occurrence of events of low probability, that something supernatural was operating...' (102).
This is reasonable from Pirie, in my view.
'This fallacy is a great prop for those who suppose themselves the children of destiny.' (103). Basing this view on the unlikely events that occurred in life.' (103).
There is the scientific concept of probability:
'The likelihood of a particular event occurring. If there are n equally likely outcomes of some experiment, and a ways in which event E could occur, then the probability of event E is a/n.' Oxford (662).
If there were 7 equally likely outcomes of an experiment, and 8 equal ways in which the event (E) could occur: E=7/8 probability.
The science is also reasonable.
Reasonable and rational, Christian faith and philosophy is not primarily based in subjective views with low probability. The resurrection of Jesus Christ, for example, is documented in the textual religious history, known as the New Testament, and was also attested to by Church Fathers, who were basically disciples of the New Testament disciples and apostles. The resurrection is held to as doctrine because it is textually witnessed by disciples, apostles and associates.
Resurrection as doctrine was held to as intellectually certain, as in internal and external evidences 'for' were significantly stronger than internal and external evidences 'against' and those in the Christian community acted accordingly. The Christian belief is the resurrection of Christ, and the future resurrection of believer's in Christ (1 Corinthians 15, Revelation 21-22), for that matter, is not based on either high or low probability.
If interested see in 'search' top right, my writings on 'certainty', which is philosophically, not 100% certainty, because humanity lacks infinite knowledge. From my PhD thesis and website work.
BLACKBURN, SIMON (1996) Oxford Dictionary of Philosophy, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
BRUCE, F.F. (1986) ‘Revelation’, in F.F. Bruce (gen.ed.), The International Bible Commentary, Grand Rapids, Marshall Pickering/ Zondervan.
CLINES, DAVID, J. A. (1986), 2 Corinthians, The International Bible Commentary, Grand Rapids, Zondervan.
DUNNETT, WALTER M. (2001) Exploring the New Testament, Wheaton, Crossway Books.
EELLS, ELLERY (1996) 'Probability', in Robert Audi (ed.), The Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy, Cambridge, pp. 649-650. Cambridge University Press.
ERICKSON, MILLARD (1994) Christian Theology, Grand Rapids, Baker Book House.
FEE, GORDON (1987) The First Epistle to the Corinthians, Grand Rapids, William B. Eerdmans Publishing Company.
FLEW, ANTONY, R.M. HARE, AND BASIL MITCHELL (1983) (1996) ‘The Debate on the Rationality of Religious Belief’, in L.P. Pojman (ed.), Philosophy, The Quest for Truth, New York, Wadsworth Publishing Company.
HOCKING, DAVID (2014) The Book of Revelation, Tustin, California, HFT Publications.
KLEIN, PETER D. (1996) ‘Certainty’, in Robert Audi, (ed), The Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
KLEIN, PETER D. (1998, 2005). ‘Epistemology’, in E. Craig (ed.), Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy, London, Routledge.
MARSH, PAUL W. in Bruce, F.F. (ed.), (1986), First Corinthians, The International Bible Commentary, Grand Rapids, Zondervan.
MOLTMANN, JÜRGEN (1993) The Crucified God, Minneapolis, Fortress Press.
MOUNCE, ROBERT H. (1990) The Book of Revelation, Grand Rapids, William B. Eerdmans Publishing Company.
Oxford Dictionary of Science, (2010), Sixth Edition, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
PIRIE, MADSEN (2006)(2015) How To Win Every Argument, Bloomsbury, London.
SLUGA, HANS (1996) ‘Wittgenstein’, in Robert Audi, (ed.), The Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
WITTGENSTEIN, LUDWIG (1951)(1979) On Certainty, Basil Blackwell, Oxford.
