Sunday, March 29, 2020

COVID-19 versus Influenza

In regards to some of the scientifically, modelled, potential death rates due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States of America. Sadly, some are significantly high.

I have read from some Christians online write (paraphrased) that COVID-19 is like the flu or another form of the flu.

Well, what does the World Health Organization state on their official website?

WHO: World Health Organization 

Similarities between influenza and COVID-19

Cited

'Firstly, COVID-19 and influenza viruses have a similar disease presentation. That is, they both cause respiratory disease, which presents as a wide range of illness from asymptomatic or mild through to severe disease and death.

Secondly, both viruses are transmitted by contact, droplets and fomites. As a result, the same public health measures, such as hand hygiene and good respiratory etiquette (coughing into your elbow or into a tissue and immediately disposing of the tissue), are important actions all can take to prevent infection.' (End citation)

Differences between influenza and COVID-19

'The speed of transmission is an important point of difference between the two viruses. Influenza has a shorter median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases) than COVID-19 virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID-19.'

'Further, transmission in the first 3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission –transmission of the virus before the appearance of symptoms – is a major driver of transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.'

'The reproductive number – the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual – is understood to be between 2 and 2.5 for COVID-19 virus, higher than for influenza. However, estimates for both COVID-19 and influenza viruses are very context and time-specific, making direct comparisons more difficult.' (End citation)

'While the range of symptoms for the two viruses is similar, the fraction with severe disease appears to be different. For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. These fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza infection.' (End citation)

'Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.' (End citation)

Some keys in my opinion...

'These fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza infection.'

'Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza.'

'While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%.'

It seems to me that this short article is scientifically and medically documented, with some data.

Key differences, between COVID-19 and influenza, are some of the major reasons why western governments and many governments throughout the world are taking significantly stronger measures than typically taken in regards to viruses, with the COVID-19 pandemic. This in contrast to typical measures taken in regards to influenza.

Even if one allows for the possible truth of unlikely political (One world government) and even spiritual (The rise of Antichrist), conspiracy theories, in regards to more control of the public by governments at this time and related; the measures by western governments (I am not providing an opinion on all the measures taken by non-western governments) in regards to social distancing and ending the pandemic are at least, in general, practically and philosophically reasonable.