Wednesday, March 08, 2017

Half a case is not a case

Lunapic Vincent van Gogh version of my walk home
Half a case is not a case

PIRIE, MADSEN (2006)(2015) How To Win Every Argument, Bloomsbury, London.

This entry by entry review of the Pirie text on fallacies, continues. This article was originally published 20170308. Pirie appears to be the main source in regards to this fallacy, therefore other sources are limited. Edited with additions for an entry on academia.edu, 20241109.

Half-concealed qualification 

'The words themselves express a limited claim, but the stress and construction is such that the qualifications are glossed over.' (117). 'Practically every single case of monetary expansion is followed within 16 months by an attendant general price rise of the same proportions.' (118). Pirie explains that from this example, that qualifying the word 'practically' is half-concealed (118) by the importance placed on the words 'every single case'. (118).

Qualification describes an attribute/quality to a subject. Half-concealing a word is not describing it accurately. It can also be stated that the qualified statement is a limited statement. The word 'practically' here has limitations in meaning which are glossed over by stating 'every single case'.

Should an exception take place instead of the rule, the person making the claims can state that there are indeed exceptions. (118). 'There is a fallacy inherent in making a restricted claim and then engaging in it as if it were a general claim.' (118). 'The fact that the limitation is expressed does not remove the fallacy. It is the fact that the qualification is half-concealed which causes it to be unnoticed, and which excludes relevant information', that makes it an informal fallacy (118). Based on Pirie's definition of this fallacy, limited claims made in premises should only lead to a limited conclusion. This fallacy occurs when assertions and arguments provided are presented in a way that are not clearly limited. 

Quizlet

Cited

Appeals to Pirie

'Half-Concealed Qualification

the words express a limited claim, but the stress and construction is such that the qualifications are glossed over. ex: "Practically every single case..."'

To avoid informal fallacy, limited claims, assertions and premises must clearly be described and lead to a limited conclusion. Half a case (118) is not a case. Pirie opines that 'Science and philosophy do not admit unexplained exceptions.' (118). Explained exceptions are reasonable when presented as limited premises leading to a limited conclusion. A formal fallacy is concerned with presenting a logical form to avoid being fallacious, and an informal fallacy occurs when there are errors in reasoning with a premise (s) and conclusion.

From (119)

Palm trees do not grow in England, so these must be a different type of tree.

Pirie points out there are exceptions.

It would be reasonable to state that typically palm trees do not grow in England, but there are exceptions.

From (119)

Just about every Cambridge man from the foreign office in the 1940s was a spy. Fire them all.

In reality it was only a few of these Cambridge men that were spies.

This should be presented as a limited statement, not a general one.

The fact that half a case is not a case means that a limited premise needs to be identified as such and not presented as a general premise.

Half-concealed qualification: Namuwiki

Cited

'This is an error that occurs when you subtly use a partially limiting qualifier like 'almost' or 'most' while speaking, and push it to a general situation and use it as a basis by making it seem like the whole thing. In this case, most people will not recognize that you are using incomplete information as a basis. Since few people will try to find cases that are not included in 'most' when making such incomplete claims, it is suitable for making it seem like you are decorating a flawed claim to the other person as if it were a perfect claim. It also has some similarities to the fallacy of hasty generalization and partial remarks.' 

Reflections

Paraphrased loosely based on past events...

Tutor at a British University to me: Practically, everyone with your biblical views is a fundamentalist.

Me: I am not a fundamentalist, I am Reformed, but there is some biblical and theological agreement.

End

The tutor tried to build a full case with half a case. With the qualification of the word 'Practically' it half-conceals the view from the tutor that I was a fundamentalist. Qualification describes an attribute/quality to a subject. Half-concealing a word (s) is not describing it accurately. It can also be stated that the qualified statement is a limited statement. The word 'practically' here has limitations in meaning which are glossed over by stating next 'everyone'.

Because it was not qualified correctly, according to the tutor, if it was practically true, in regards to those that believed in biblical doctrines and theology, from what the tutor stated, it must have also been true in my case, which was fallacious. While 'everyone' fallaciously places me in the camp with fundamentalists that hold to biblical doctrines and theology. Disagreements my Reformed doctrines and theology had with views within fundamentalism and evangelism were ignored. I deduce that if I had embraced the program of the academia, then in agreement with the explanation of Pirie, 'practically' would also provide an exception for my tutor in regards to some of my views.

BLACKBURN, SIMON (1996) Oxford Dictionary of Philosophy, Oxford, Oxford University Press. 

CONWAY DAVID A. AND RONALD MUNSON (1997) The Elements of Reasoning, Wadsworth Publishing Company, New York. 

GOODMAN, M. F. (1983) First Logic, University Press of America, USA.

LANGER, SUSANNE K (1953)(1967) An Introduction to Symbolic Logic, Dover Publications, New York. (Philosophy). 

PAPINEAU, DAVID (Gen. Ed) (2016) Philosophy: Theories and Great Thinkers (2016), New York, Shelter Harbour Press.

PIRIE, MADSEN (2006)(2015) How To Win Every Argument, Bloomsbury, London. 

SZUDEK, ANDY & TORSLEY, SARAH (2018) The Little Book of Philosophy, Landau Cecile (Ed), London, DK Publishing.

WALTON, DOUGLAS (1996) ‘Informal Fallacy’, in Robert Audi, (ed), The Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

Tuesday, March 07, 2017

I John 2: 19: In Brief

Lunapic in the style of Vincent van Gogh, editing a photo I took today.

Early this morning, I viewed a classic American bible film from the 1950's on Turner Classic Movies. I had viewed it years ago and the second viewing was equally, decently, entertaining.

The lead actor of the film on Wikipedia is documented as being an atheist, in fact there is a quote from the actor implying such, or perhaps he was an agnostic.

Adherents.com claims this actor was a Presbyterian, but without any quote by the actor claiming a Christian faith and philosophy. Either way the actor, whether he was ever regenerated or not, acted as a first-century Christian in this film.

I will avoid naming the actor because I am not interested in debating this late actor's worldview, rather I am attempting to make a theological point. But for the sake of argument, let us state the quote correctly documents the actor as an atheist, or at least an agnostic.

It points to a simple, yet very important theological truth.

Reasonably as deduction:

A person can act in a fictional context.

A person can act in a non-fictional context.

A non-Christian can act as a Christian in a fictional context.

A non-Christian can act as a Christian in a non-fictional context.

The New Testament Scripture documents the existence of false Christians.

Therefore, the Christian Church contains some false Christians.
---

This would be true regardless of how intentional the falsehood and/or act.

To me in the context of this present earthly realm, it is obvious that not all persons would be true Christians, but the New Testament revelation documents the reality of false Christians. As if it needs to be taught. Notably in I John 2: 19.

1 John 2:19 New American Standard Bible (NASB)

19 They went out from us, but they were not really of us; for if they had been of us, they would have remained with us; but they went out, so that [a]it would be shown that they all are not of us.

1 John 2:19 English Standard Version (ESV)

19 They went out from us, but they were not of us; for if they had been of us, they would have continued with us. But they went out, that it might become plain that they all are not of us.

THE ENGLISH STANDARD VERSION (2007) Wheaton, Illinois, Crossway Books.

THE NEW AMERICAN STANDARD BIBLE (1984) Iowa Falls, Iowa, World Bible Publishers.

Monday, March 06, 2017

The Gambler's Fallacy

The Gambler's Fallacy

My photo 2017-01-03

Preface

An entry in the Pirie book review. Originally published on 20170306, edited on Blogger for an entry on academia.edu, 20250105.

PIRIE, MADSEN (2006)(2015) How To Win Every Argument, Bloomsbury, London.

The Gambler's Fallacy 

Cited

'Gamblers, and others, are led into this fallacy by confusing the odds against a whole sequence with the odds against any event in that sequence.' (113). The odds against a coin landing heads five times in a row are therefore: 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 or 1/32 (113).

Very importantly...

Cited

'If the first four tosses, despite the odds, come down to heads, the chance of the fifth toss being heads is not 1 in 32, but 1 in 2.' (113). The odds for each individual toss remain the same! The previous tosses do not somehow effect the next. (113).

Pirie correctly reasons that philosophically, the odds remain the same. Luck will not improve or get worse. (114). Luck will not 'even out'. (114). The coin toss is random and heads or tails occurs by chance.

Judit Balla, Google+ Shared publicly
Investpedia

Cited

'What is the 'Gambler's Fallacy'

The gambler's fallacy is when an individual erroneously believes that the onset of a certain random event is less likely to happen following an event or a series of events. This line of thinking is incorrect because past events do not change the probability that certain events will occur in the future.'

Investpedia References

University of Wisconsin. "The Gambler's Fallacy: On the Danger of Misunderstanding Simple Probabilities," Page 1-2.

American Statistical Association, Chance. "The Mathematical Anatomy of the Gambler's Fallacy.
Online

My Example of this fallacy

'The  Vancouver Canucks are likely to win the Stanley Cup in the next few years, because they have not won it since entering the League in 1970.'

Professional oddsmakers can create reasonable odds of a particular team winning the Stanley Cup in a given year. It has nothing to do with any concept that the odds will even out, or with fairness.

Pirie explains that in this context, the universe is not fair. (115).

Rather, from a Christian theological perspective, God has established laws of the universe and within that is mathematical chance which can be logically explained in equation. From a theological perspective, this is no way negates the concept of an infinite, eternal, sovereign, providential God that created and maintains natural laws and can interfere supernaturally within divine will as first and primary cause.


From Science Direct

The gambler's fallacy and gender

Cited

'Abstract 

The “gambler's fallacy” is the false belief that a random event is less likely to occur if the event has occurred recently. Such beliefs are false if the onset of events is in fact independent of previous events. We study gender differences in the gambler's fallacy using data from the Danish state lottery. Our data set is unique in that we track individual players over time which allows us to investigate how men and women react with their number picking to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We find evidence of gambler's fallacy for men but not for women. On average, men are about 1% less likely to bet on numbers drawn in the previous week than on numbers not drawn. Women do not react significantly to the previous week's drawing outcome.'

Science Direct References 

M. Bar-Hillel et al. The perception of randomness Advances in Applied Mathematics (1991)

T. Dohmen et al. Biased probability judgment. Evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2009) 

C. Eckel et al. Forecasting risk attitudes: an experimental study using actual and forecast gamble choices Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2008) 

L. Farrell et al. The welfare effects of lotto: evidence from the UK Journal of Public Economics (1999) 

M. Kearney State lotteries and consumer behavior Journal of Public Economics (2005)

K. Wärneryd Risk attitudes and risky behavior Journal of Economic Psychology (1996) 

G. Charness et al. When optimal choices feel wrong: a laboratory study of Bayesian updating, complexity, and affect American Economic Review (2005)

C. Clotfelder et al. The “gambler's fallacy” in lottery play Management Science (1993)

R. Croson et al. Gender differences in preferences Journal of Economic Literature (2009)

R. Croson et al. The gambler's fallacy and the hot hand: empirical data from casinos Journal of Risk and Uncertainty (2005)

P. Delfabbro et al. It's not what you know, but how you use it: statistical knowledge and adolescent problem gambling Journal of Gambling Studies (2006) 

M. Griffiths et al. The psychology of lottery gambling International Gambling Studies (2001) 
---

If gambling foolishness and the gambler's fallacy is more prevalent in males than females, I am glad I have no interest in gambling, as a male.

References

LANGER, SUSANNE K (1953)(1967) An Introduction to Symbolic Logic, Dover Publications, New York. (Philosophy). 

PIRIE, MADSEN (2006)(2015) How To Win Every Argument, Bloomsbury, London.

Saturday, March 04, 2017

In Three Minutes: Limitations of Devotions



This is my first, In Three Minutes audio series. These are short, approximately three minute academic, audio presentations.

A non-exhaustive useful list of texts:

AUDI, RICHARD (ed.), The Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

BAUER, W. (1979) A Greek-English Lexicon of the New Testament, Translated by Eric H. Wahlstrom, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press.

BLACKBURN, SIMON (1996) Oxford Dictionary of Philosophy, Oxford, Oxford University Press. 

CALVIN, JOHN (1539)(1998) The Institutes of the Christian Religion, Translated by Henry Beveridge, Grand Rapids, The Christian Classic Ethereal Library, Wheaton College.

CALVIN, JOHN (1543)(1996) The Bondage and Liberation of the Will, Translated by G.I. Davies, Grand Rapids, Baker Book House.

ELWELL, WALTER (ed.), (1996) Evangelical Dictionary of Theology, Grand Rapids, Baker Books. 

ELWELL, WALTER AND YARBROUGH, ROBERT W., Third Edition (2013) Encountering The New Testament, Grand Rapids, Baker Academic.

ERICKSON, MILLARD (1994) Christian Theology, Grand Rapids, Baker Book House.

FEINBERG, JOHN S. (1994) The Many Faces of Evil, Grand Rapids, Zondervan Publishing House.

THE ENGLISH STANDARD VERSION (2007) Wheaton, Illinois, Crossway Books.

THE NEW AMERICAN STANDARD BIBLE (1984) Iowa Falls, Iowa, World Bible Publishers.

STRONG, J. (1890)(1986) Strong’s Exhaustive Concordance of the Bible, Pickering, Ontario, Welch Publishing Company.

THE GREEK NEW TESTAMENT (1993) Stuttgart, United Bible Societies.

Also

Prayer Current: Resources