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PIRIE, MADSEN (2006)(2015) How To Win Every Argument, Bloomsbury, London.
Cum hoc ergo propter hoc
This fallacy assumes that events which occur together are casually related. It leaves no room for coincidence or for an outside factor which separately influences those events. (72).
A classic example is (my add):
Things happen in threes.
Good things happen in threes.
From a Reformed, Biblical perspective, God causes all things as the first cause (implied from Genesis, Romans, as examples), but this would not make three events which occur near the same time, all specifically and directly causally related.
What happens when there are four or more events that occur that are possibly on a surface level, related, for example, four celebrities die within a certain time?
It is simply more likely that celebrities die and will continue to do so, in this present reality.
Events are linked because they occur simultaneously. (72). It is unwarranted because it is assumed any of the events could not have occurred without the other event. (72).
There is a presumed, assumed connection and not a rationally demonstrated one.
Pirie reasons statistics can be used for Cum hoc ergo propter hoc. (74).
This is done when selective information is used. (74).
Therefore, a key for the sake of fact when using statistics is to present all relevant statistical information and not just what supports one's case and agenda.
The negative use of statistics is highlighted by the classic statement:
Cited
Wikipedia
'"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.
The term was popularised in United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Several other people have been listed as originators of the quote, and it is often erroneously attributed to Twain himself.[1]'
In my mind, this is another documented fallacy which fits into the excessive use of assumption and lazy thinking categories.
This fallacy assumes that events which occur together are casually related. It leaves no room for coincidence or for an outside factor which separately influences those events. (72).
A classic example is (my add):
Things happen in threes.
Good things happen in threes.
From a Reformed, Biblical perspective, God causes all things as the first cause (implied from Genesis, Romans, as examples), but this would not make three events which occur near the same time, all specifically and directly causally related.
What happens when there are four or more events that occur that are possibly on a surface level, related, for example, four celebrities die within a certain time?
It is simply more likely that celebrities die and will continue to do so, in this present reality.
Events are linked because they occur simultaneously. (72). It is unwarranted because it is assumed any of the events could not have occurred without the other event. (72).
There is a presumed, assumed connection and not a rationally demonstrated one.
Pirie reasons statistics can be used for Cum hoc ergo propter hoc. (74).
This is done when selective information is used. (74).
Therefore, a key for the sake of fact when using statistics is to present all relevant statistical information and not just what supports one's case and agenda.
The negative use of statistics is highlighted by the classic statement:
Cited
Wikipedia
'"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.
The term was popularised in United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Several other people have been listed as originators of the quote, and it is often erroneously attributed to Twain himself.[1]'
In my mind, this is another documented fallacy which fits into the excessive use of assumption and lazy thinking categories.
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